{"id":402,"date":"2025-04-14T10:46:15","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T08:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/?p=402"},"modified":"2025-04-14T11:01:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T09:01:25","slug":"investicni-zpravodaj-za-1q-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/2025\/04\/14\/investicni-zpravodaj-za-1q-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Investi\u010dn\u00ed zpravodaj za 1Q 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00dav\u011bry a bydlen\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd z\u00e1jem o hypot\u00e9ky trv\u00e1 ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd rok.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>V\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb 2025?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Sazby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v podstat\u011b beze zm\u011bn. Mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b sice v\u017edy o n\u011bco poklesnou, ale bav\u00edme se o setin\u00e1ch procentn\u00edho bodu. Nic, co by st\u00e1lo za pozornost. Sazby kolem 4,59 % a v\u00fd\u0161e jsou dnes prost\u011b standard. \u00davahy o jejich v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm poklesu jsou dnes sp\u00ed\u0161e akademick\u00e9. Nic moc se z\u0159ejm\u011b d\u00edt nebude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jakou fixaci?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e bychom si p\u0159edstavovali \u010di p\u0159\u00e1li. Mezi laickou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed a snad i mezi odborn\u00edky panuje \u201eoptimistick\u00e9\u201c p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee se d\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat dal\u0161\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. To je hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d klienti nemaj\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00e1jem fixovat si \u00farokovou sazbu na del\u0161\u00ed dobu (sou\u010dasn\u00e1 praxe je fixace na 2 a\u017e 3 roky).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spo\u0159en\u00ed a investov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Investov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Akciov\u00e9 trhy Korekce na trz\u00edch.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>V \u00fanoru jsme za\u017eili na trz\u00edch korekci, v na\u0161em p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b POKLES na hlavn\u00edch akciov\u00fdch indexech. Pokles na Americk\u00fdch akci\u00edch dos\u00e1hl p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 9 %, n\u00e1sledovalo drobn\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed a op\u011btovn\u00fd n\u00e1vrat nervozity mezi investory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Co je p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou t\u00e9to korekce?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Amerika zav\u00e1d\u00ed celn\u00ed tarify na n\u011bkolik st\u00e1t\u016f, opat\u0159en\u00ed se dotknou i n\u00e1s v \u010cR, hlavn\u011b tedy automobilov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby. Zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed budou zvy\u0161ovat ceny, a to se pozd\u011bji prom\u00edtne do v\u00fd\u0161e inflace. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace zase znamen\u00e1 dr\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb vysoko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdhled se v USA do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry zhor\u0161il, n\u00e1vratnost mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysok\u00fdch investic do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence je sporn\u00e1. Technologick\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 tituly jako NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft apod. proto zaznamenaly vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pokles, ne\u017e je pr\u016fm\u011br na cel\u00e9m akciov\u00e9m trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zpr\u00e1va z FED<\/strong>; na posledn\u00edm velmi siln\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed Americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky FED bylo p\u0159ijato rozhodnut\u00ed ponechat aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. \u201e<em>Od posledn\u00edho maxima 5,5 % z \u010dervence 2023 jsme se postupn\u011b dostali na<\/em> <em>aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch 4,5 %, a u t\u00e9to sazby z\u016fstaneme i nad\u00e1le\u201c<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00edme, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jsou pro ekonomiku a investory kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Proto na ka\u017ed\u00fd n\u00e1znak sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb v budoucnosti ze strany FED trhy reaguj\u00ed velk\u00fdm optimismem a skokov\u00fdm r\u016fstem, naopak zpr\u00e1vy o pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9m podr\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 (vysok\u00e9) \u00farovni trhy reaguj\u00ed skokov\u00fdmi poklesy. To jsme zaznamenali tak\u00e9 v p\u00e1tek 28.3.2025, kde p\u0159i\u0161la infla\u010dn\u00ed data, kter\u00e1 byla hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e data do t\u00e9 chv\u00edle o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1. Index americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed SP500 za den klesl o &#8211; 2 %, co\u017e je v\u0161ak na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch docela b\u011b\u017en\u00fd jev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pro\u010d takov\u00e1 reakce?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Hor\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed data znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee FED bude dr\u017eet vysok\u00e9 \u00faroky, a tud\u00ed\u017e je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee vysok\u00e9 sazby zde budeme m\u00edt d\u00e9le, ne\u017e jsme o\u010dek\u00e1vali. Jak dne\u0161n\u00ed situaci \u010dteme my? <em>Nemysl\u00edme si, \u017ee je d\u016fvod k negativit\u011b. Z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho<\/em> <em>hlediska vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed celn\u00ed tarify ur\u010dit\u011b nejsou dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va. My ale v\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee USA administrativa nechce dopustit recesi, pr\u00e1v\u011b<\/em> <em>naopak. Rovn\u011b\u017e si mysl\u00edme, \u017ee kdyby byl v USA velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m nebo velk\u00e9 riziko recese, FED by zakro\u010dil a sn\u00ed\u017eil by \u00farokov\u00e9<\/em> <em>sazby \u2013 co\u017e se nestalo.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jak se da\u0159ilo na\u0161emu investi\u010dn\u00edmu portfoliu?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2025 je na\u0161e portfolio v poklesu \u2013 6 %. Av\u0161ak statistika za posledn\u00ed 3 roky hovo\u0159\u00ed o v\u00fdnosu + 25 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"438\" src=\"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/_cms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Snimek-obrazovky-2025-04-14-v-10.45.29-1024x438.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/_cms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Snimek-obrazovky-2025-04-14-v-10.45.29-980x419.png 980w, https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/_cms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Snimek-obrazovky-2025-04-14-v-10.45.29-480x205.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Obr\u00e1zek 1.<\/em><\/strong><em> V\u00fdnos portfolia BASE na konci roku 2024 (EUR) v pom\u011bru 80:20 (akcie : dluhopisy); <\/em><em>zdroj: justETF.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Informativn\u00ed d\u016fchodov\u00e1 aplikace (IDA) <\/strong>&#8211; doporu\u010dujeme<strong>:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Pokud jste doposud nem\u011bli p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost nebo \u010das, rozhodn\u011b si to poj\u010fme spole\u010dn\u011b proj\u00edt a VYSV\u011aTLIT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pro\u010d byste m\u011bli tuto IDA online slu\u017ebu e-Port\u00e1lu \u010cSSZ pou\u017e\u00edvat a jak\u00e9 informace V\u00e1m poskytne?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Zkontrolujete si zapo\u010dtenou dobu d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b je uprav\u00edte \u010di dopln\u00edte.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Zjist\u00edte sv\u00e9 datum odchodu do starobn\u00edho d\u016fchodu.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>IDA v\u00e1m vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed odhad v\u00fd\u0161e starobn\u00edho d\u016fchodu.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Co je pro n\u00e1s AKTU\u00c1LN\u011a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Z historie sledov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdvoje na trz\u00edch vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee po ka\u017ed\u00e9m poklesu n\u00e1sleduje zotaven\u00ed a r\u016fst. V na\u0161ich portfoli\u00edch pracujeme s rizikem pokles\u016f (nikoliv s rizikem celkov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poklesy na trz\u00edch o 15 % nebo 20 % nejsou v akciov\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b nic neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho. Statisticky je zn\u00e1m pokles o 20 % ka\u017ed\u00e9 4 roky.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Na\u0161e portfolio je p\u0159ipraveno pro tyto n\u00e1m statisticky zn\u00e1m\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. Defenzivn\u00ed slo\u017eka na\u0161eho portfolia nen\u00ed v poklesu.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vznik\u00e1 n\u00e1m v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Na\u0161e doporu\u010den\u00ed: <\/strong>Obra\u0165te se na n\u00e1s \u2013 spole\u010dn\u011b dokon\u010d\u00edme pro v\u00e1s vhodn\u00fd postup.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed vklad\u016f do spo\u0159en\u00ed. Doporu\u010dujeme nav\u00fd\u0161it pravideln\u00e9 vklady do spo\u0159en\u00ed, dle mo\u017enost\u00ed na 2 a\u017e 3 n\u00e1sobek sou\u010dasn\u00fdch pravideln\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch vklad\u016f.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd vklad. Lze rozd\u011blit i na etapy. Vklad na \u00fa\u010det je nyn\u00ed velmi v\u00fdhodn\u00fd \u2013 znamen\u00e1 n\u00e1kup se slevou.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Re-balancovat portfolia. U v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch investi\u010dn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f je v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 odprodat \u010d\u00e1st dluhopis\u016f a nakoupit levn\u00e9 akcie.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Poklesy a tak\u00e9 r\u016fsty pat\u0159\u00ed k dynamick\u00e9mu portfoliu, a tak jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u017eivota ka\u017ed\u00e9ho investora. Nen\u00ed d\u016fvod k panice.<\/em> <em>Trp\u011blivost n\u00e1s odm\u011b\u0148uje velk\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy na dlouh\u00e9m investi\u010dn\u00edm horizontu<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dav\u011bry a bydlen\u00ed Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd z\u00e1jem o hypot\u00e9ky trv\u00e1 ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00fd rok. V\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb 2025? Sazby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v podstat\u011b beze zm\u011bn. Mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b sice v\u017edy o n\u011bco poklesnou, ale bav\u00edme se o setin\u00e1ch procentn\u00edho bodu. Nic, co by st\u00e1lo za pozornost. Sazby kolem 4,59 % a v\u00fd\u0161e jsou dnes prost\u011b standard. \u00davahy o jejich v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nezarazene"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=402"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":405,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions\/405"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}