{"id":413,"date":"2025-01-14T11:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T10:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/?p=413"},"modified":"2025-04-14T11:21:57","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T09:21:57","slug":"servisni-list-4q-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/2025\/01\/14\/servisni-list-4q-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Servisn\u00ed List 4Q 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dobr\u00fd den,<\/em><\/strong> p\u0159ejeme V\u00e1m do roku 2025 pevn\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed a \u00fasp\u011bch v osobn\u00edm i v profesn\u00edm \u017eivot\u011b. I v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce V\u00e1s budeme<\/em> kvart\u00e1ln\u011b informovat o v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lostech z finan\u010dn\u00edho sv\u011bta. M\u00e1me za sebou opravdu n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd rok, za\u017eili jsme<\/em> zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, kri ck\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, spoustu geopoli ck\u00e9ho nap\u011b , ale tak\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy v oblas investov\u00e1n\u00ed. Poj\u010fme<\/em> si tedy zrekapitulovat uplynul\u00fd rok 2024 a spole\u010dn\u011b se zamyslet nad rokem 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dav\u011bry a bydlen\u00ed<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Pozvoln\u00e9 zlev\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u00daroky na \u00fav\u011brech n\u00e1m pomalu klesaj\u00ed. Jak v\u00edme, Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) loni po del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed poprv\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017eila \u00faroky (bylo to v \u010dervnu 2024) z p\u016fvodn\u00edch 4,5 % na 4,25 %. Inflaci v EU se da\u0159ilo postupn\u011b dost\u00e1vat pod kontrolu, a tak jsme vid\u011bli dal\u0161\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb a\u017e na aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch 3,15 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee banky v \u010cR a HYPO \u00fav\u011bry tyto poklesy n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed ve stejn\u00e9m tempu \u010di rozsahu. \u00daroky n\u00e1m sice klesaj\u00ed, ale zdaleka ne stejn\u00fdm tempem jako v ECB \u010di v \u010cNB \u2013 sni\u017euje se velmi pomalu a opatrn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nemovitostn\u00ed TRH – koupit & nekoupit?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Jak se da\u0159ilo nemovitostem v \u010cR? Realitn\u00ed trh v \u010cR za\u017eil v roce 2024 m\u00edrn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed a r\u016fst. Pro\u010d za\u010daly r\u016fst ceny nemovitost\u00ed? Vid\u00edme za m pozittvn\u00ed trend r\u016fstu zam\u011bstnanost, r\u016fst mezd, m\u00edrn\u00e9 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na \u00fav\u011brech a tak\u00e9 inflaci, kter\u00e1 se dostala pod kontrolu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb 2025?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Pokud nenastanou ne\u010dekan\u00e9 ud\u00e1los , r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v roce 2025 je sp\u00ed\u0161e nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba hypot\u00e9k se v roce 2024 dostala pod 5 % a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch klesne a\u017e ke 4 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spo\u0159en\u00ed a investice<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

INVESTOV\u00c1N\u00cd:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MIMO\u0158\u00c1DN\u00c9 roky a hned dva po sob\u011b, 2023 a 2024. Rok 2024 byl mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm rokem v inves c\u00edch, a na\u0161e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

inves \u010dn\u00ed por olia z toho rovn\u011b\u017e mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b PROFITOVALA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rok 2024 byl dokonce je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rok. V roce 2023 jsme dos\u00e1hli nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu +17 %, a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

to i p\u0159es zrovna NE ide\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy analy k\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

INFLACE v \u010cR dle \u010cNB byla v prosinci 2024<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,0 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akciov\u00e9 trhy<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Co napomohlo k takov\u00e9mu zhodnocen\u00ed na trz\u00edch v roce 2024? Mezi nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed fundamenty pat\u0159ilo postupn\u00e9 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb Americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky (FED), Americk\u00e9 volby (Donald Trump opravdu nen\u00ed pro ekonomiku USA prohra); inflace se do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry dostala pod kontrolu, a p\u0159i\u0161el n\u00e1stup um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (IA) a spolu s volbou prezidenta USA jej\u00ed nasazen\u00ed v technologick\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch \u2013 akcie t\u011bchto firem to vyst\u0159elilo prudce vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dluhopisov\u00e9 trhy<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u00darokov\u00e9 SAZBY sm\u011brem dol\u016f tak\u00e9 v USA. Z hlediska budov\u00e1n\u00ed a ochrany majetku je pro n\u00e1s v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 p\u0159eva\u017eovat v na\u0161ich por oli\u00edch trh USA. Americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka je proto pro n\u00e1s nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, a ta \u0161la dol\u016f s \u00faroky poprv\u00e9 v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 (z p\u016fvodn\u00edch 5,5 %), nyn\u00ed jsme po n\u011bkolika skoc\u00edch na \u00farovni 4,5 %. Navzdory dobr\u00fdm zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m je zde p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee Trumpova opat\u0159en\u00ed mohou p\u0159in\u00e9st zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko inflace, a tak FED s dal\u0161\u00edm sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farok\u016f nemus\u00ed sp\u011bchat. Tento p\u0159edpoklad na konci roku p\u0159inesl POKLES do akciov\u00fdch i dluhopisov\u00fdch index\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak se da\u0159ilo na\u0161emu investi\u010dn\u00edmu portfoliu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V roce 2024 jsme dos\u00e1hli v\u00fdnosu vynikaj\u00edc\u00edch +23 % a za posledn\u00edch 5 let je v\u00fdnos +70 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Obr\u00e1zek 1.V\u00fdnos por olia BASE na konci roku 2024 (EUR) v pom\u011bru 80 : 20<\/em><\/strong> (akcie : dluhopisy); zdroj: justETF.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak to bude d\u00e1le na trz\u00edch v roce 2025?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Za posledn\u00ed 2 roky jsme narostli na na\u0161ich por oli\u00edch o +44 %. Kdy\u017e p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00edme nad rokem 2025, je sp\u00ed\u0161e NE-pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee budeme znovu oslavovat velk\u00e9 dvojcifern\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b, na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch nevid\u00edme bublinu, a akcie jsou ohodnoceny na jejich f\u00e9rovou hodnotu. St\u00e1le si mysl\u00edme, \u017ee se budeme nad\u00e1le pohybovat na r\u016fstov\u00e9 trajektorii, ale v\u00edme, \u017ee poklesy nebo korekce na trz\u00edch jsou pom\u011brn\u011b b\u011b\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je pro n\u00e1s i nad\u00e1le velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edtat se v\u0161emi mo\u017en\u00fdmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje, a to i s t\u011bmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i poklesov\u00fdmi. St\u00e1le u n\u00e1s plat\u00ed , \u017ee INVESTUJEME S DLOUHODOB\u00ddM HORIZONTEM \u2013 ide\u00e1ln\u011b s pravideln\u00fdmi vklady, a na\u0161e investi\u010dn\u00ed portfolia jsou nastavena na vysok\u00fd r\u016fstov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l, p\u0159itom z\u00e1rove\u0148 na\u0161e portfolia poskytuj\u00ed i zv\u00fd\u0161enou ochranu v\u016f\u010di p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm pokles\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u011bkujeme V\u00e1m za d\u016fv\u011bru na na\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 cest\u011b budov\u00e1n\u00ed a ochrany Va\u0161eho majetku.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dobr\u00fd den, p\u0159ejeme V\u00e1m do roku 2025 pevn\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed a \u00fasp\u011bch v osobn\u00edm i v profesn\u00edm \u017eivot\u011b. I v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce V\u00e1s budeme kvart\u00e1ln\u011b informovat o v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lostech z finan\u010dn\u00edho sv\u011bta. M\u00e1me za sebou opravdu n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd rok, za\u017eili jsme zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, kri ck\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, spoustu geopoli ck\u00e9ho nap\u011b , ale tak\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy v oblas investov\u00e1n\u00ed. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nezarazene"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=413"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413\/revisions\/415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}