{"id":417,"date":"2024-10-14T11:23:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T09:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/?p=417"},"modified":"2025-04-14T11:28:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T09:28:40","slug":"servisni-list-3q-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/2024\/10\/14\/servisni-list-3q-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Servisn\u00ed List 3Q 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dobr\u00fd den,<\/em><\/strong> m\u00e1me za sebou t\u0159et\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2024, v na\u0161em servisn\u00edm listu se spole\u010dn\u011b s V\u00e1mi chceme pod\u00edvat na n\u011bkolik<\/em> v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed uplynul\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed a ud\u011bl\u00e1me si kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad \u00fav\u011bry, bydlen\u00edm a na\u0161imi investicemi.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dav\u011bry a bydlen\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zlev\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u00daroky sm\u011brem dol\u016f? ECB (Evropsk\u00e1 Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed Banka) od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024 dvakr\u00e1t sn\u00ed\u017eila \u00farokovou sazbu. I \u010cNB \u2013 \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka sni\u017eovala REPO sazbu, naposledy na hodnotu 4,25 %. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed REPO sazba od prosince 2023 postupn\u011b klesla ze 7 % na sazbu 4,25 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed REPO sazby m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farok\u016f na \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch produktech, ale tak\u00e9 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na produktech depozitn\u00edch (spo\u0159\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty a term\u00ednovan\u00e9 vklady). Nutno v\u0161ak podotknout, \u017ee n\u00e1stup nelze u \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch sazeb o\u010dek\u00e1vat okam\u017eit\u00fd, n\u00fdbr\u017e velmi opatrn\u00fd a pozvoln\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koupit \u2013 nekoupit?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Trh s nemovitostmi za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 op\u011bt o\u017e\u00edvat. P\u0159ed \u010dasem jsme konstatovali, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1jemc\u016f o koupi nemovitosti sv\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed odkl\u00e1d\u00e1, a to kv\u016fli nejistot\u011b na trhu a kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m. Nyn\u00ed i my v\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee ceny nemovitost\u00ed ji\u017e \u201ena\u0161ly sv\u00e9 dno\u201c. S koup\u00ed bydlen\u00ed ji\u017e tedy nen\u00ed d\u016fvod ot\u00e1let, proto\u017ee nemovitosti maj\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ed sebou dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fstov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro\u010d by m\u011bly nemovitosti r\u016fst?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Postupn\u00e9 zlev\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f, ukon\u010den\u00ed odkl\u00e1dan\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f (zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka), zlep\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se n\u00e1lada na nemovitostn\u00edm trhu, ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipravovan\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed zm\u011bny ve stavebn\u00edm z\u00e1kon\u011b. To v\u0161e bude pom\u00e1hat trhu s nemovitostmi. Rychl\u00fd r\u016fst cen nemovitost\u00ed v\u0161ak nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00edrn\u00fd a postupn\u00fd cenov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chr\u00e1n\u00edte si sv\u00e9 bydlen\u00ed?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Po\u010das\u00ed se v na\u0161em regionu st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u00edce neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm a\u017e nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed n\u00e1s zas\u00e1hly opravdu ni\u010div\u00e9 povodn\u011b. V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b jsme za\u017eili i nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 krupobit\u00ed, siln\u00fd n\u00e1razov\u00fd v\u00edtr, mohutn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b v n\u011bkter\u00fdch lokalit\u00e1ch p\u016fsobilo i zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed. Je opravdu velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 a zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 m\u00edt svoji nemovitost poji\u0161t\u011bnu na jej\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pozor<\/strong>, je t\u0159eba myslet nejen na nemovitost (d\u016fm, byt), ale tak\u00e9 na va\u0161i dom\u00e1cnost a va\u0161i odpov\u011bdnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pozor tak\u00e9 na RIZIKO \u201epodpoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c<\/strong> Co je to? Ceny nemovitost\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b rostou, a kdy\u017e z\u00e1rove\u0148 s nimi neroste i<\/em> pojistn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka v pojistn\u00e9 smlouv\u011b, po \u010dase bude ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je hodnota nemovitosti. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b V\u00e1m poji\u0161\u0165ovna<\/em> m\u016f\u017ee pojistn\u00e9 pln\u011bn\u00ed kr\u00e1tit, a tak zdaleka nemus\u00ed sta\u010dit k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u0161kody. Indexov\u00e1n\u00ed (automatick\u00e9 navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed) pojistn\u00e9<\/em> \u010d\u00e1stky n\u00e1m zajist\u00ed, \u017ee jsme st\u00e1le poji\u0161t\u011bni na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu. Pokud si nejste \u00fapln\u011b jisti pojistnou \u010d\u00e1stkou na Va\u0161\u00ed<\/em> nemovitosti, m\u011bli bychom se na to spole\u010dn\u011b pod\u00edvat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spo\u0159en\u00ed a investov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investov\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Jak se vyv\u00edj\u00ed situace v pr\u016fb\u011bhu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

INFLACE dle \u010cNB byla v srpnu 2024<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AKCIOV\u00c9 trhy<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

FED – Americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka za\u010dala sni\u017eovat sazby. Po 4 letech od posledn\u00edho sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed FED sn\u00ed\u017eil \u00faroky o cel\u00fdch 0,5 % (mnohem \u010dast\u011bji jsou skoky o 0,25 %). Toto sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed u\u017e bylo ale v\u0161eobecn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1no. Trhy na to zareagovaly velmi pozitivn\u011b, a tak se hlavn\u00ed indexy dostaly na nov\u00e1 historick\u00e1 maxima. Roste americk\u00fd index S&P500 i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed akciov\u00fd index MSCI Sv\u011bt (jde o nosn\u00fd fond i v na\u0161ich d\u016fchodov\u00fdch pil\u00ed\u0159\u00edch pro na\u0161e klienty).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Index S&P500 m\u00e1 od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku do konce 3Q\/2024 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst za dlouh\u00e9 obdob\u00ed od roku 1997.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akcie jsou zat\u00edm ve form\u011b. Obecn\u011b je se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb spojov\u00e1n i mohutn\u00fd r\u016fstov\u00fd trh. To by znamenalo, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed historick\u00fdch maxim. Ne v\u017edy tomu tak ale mus\u00ed b\u00fdt. Historie n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bkdy m\u016f\u017ee po sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb p\u0159ij\u00edt recese. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bychom na akciov\u00fdch indexech vid\u011bli \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla. Proto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, \u017ee pracujeme s n\u011bkolika sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i v\u00fdvoje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dluhopisov\u00e9 trhy<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159i\u0161el \u010das dluhopis\u016f. V obdob\u00ed poklesu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb se dluhopis\u016fm da\u0159\u00ed. B\u011b\u017en\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1vaj\u00ed i v\u00fdnosy akciov\u00fdch index\u016f. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt hlavn\u011b dluhopisy s del\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed \u2013 ty na zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb reaguj\u00ed citliv\u011bji. Sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb pro n\u011b znamen\u00e1 r\u016fst jejich hodnoty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak se da\u0159ilo na\u0161emu investi\u010dn\u00edmu portfoliu?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Rok 2024 p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed hlavn\u00edch bankovn\u00edch dom\u016f. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku hlavn\u00ed indexy mnohokr\u00e1t p\u0159ekonaly sv\u00e1 historick\u00e1 maxima. Na\u0161e portfolio dos\u00e1hlo od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku v\u00fdnosu velmi p\u011bkn\u00fdch +16<\/strong> %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za posledn\u00edch 5 let je to v\u00fdnos +75<\/strong> %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Obr\u00e1zek 1.<\/em><\/strong>V\u00fdnos portfolia BASE od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024 v pom\u011bru 80 : 20<\/em><\/strong> (akcie : dluhopisy); <\/em>zdroj: justETF.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak to bude d\u00e1le na trz\u00edch?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Navzdory velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu a r\u016fstov\u00e9mu roku vid\u00edme na trz\u00edch krom\u011b optimismu i spoustu nervozity. \u010cekaj\u00ed n\u00e1s velmi nejist\u00e9 americk\u00e9 volby, stejn\u011b tak geopolitick\u00e1 situace na bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u016f\u017ee spustit velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed nervozity a zla. Proto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, \u017ee pracujeme s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i v\u00fdvoje na trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mysl\u00edme si, \u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje je, \u017ee se vyhneme recesi. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd pro akcie i dluhopisy v na\u0161em portfoliu. Alternativn\u00edm \u2013 ale pozor, ne zcela nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm \u2013 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee recese opravdu p\u0159ijde, a v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budeme na trhu vid\u011bt poklesy na akciov\u00fdch indexech. Dluhopisy by i v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohly dosahovat slu\u0161n\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f, proto\u017ee je rozumn\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b recese budou muset centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00faroky, co\u017e bude ceny dluhopis\u016f tla\u010dit siln\u011b vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na\u0161e doporu\u010den\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eKdy\u017e nev\u00edm, tak se ur\u010dit\u011b zept\u00e1m. St\u00e1le p\u0159eci plat\u00ed, ten, kdo se zept\u00e1 \u2026 n\u011bco se i dozv\u00ed.<\/em>„<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dobr\u00fd den, m\u00e1me za sebou t\u0159et\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2024, v na\u0161em servisn\u00edm listu se spole\u010dn\u011b s V\u00e1mi chceme pod\u00edvat na n\u011bkolik v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed uplynul\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed a ud\u011bl\u00e1me si kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad \u00fav\u011bry, bydlen\u00edm a na\u0161imi investicemi. \u00dav\u011bry a bydlen\u00ed Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zlev\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f? \u00daroky sm\u011brem dol\u016f? ECB (Evropsk\u00e1 Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed Banka) od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024 dvakr\u00e1t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nezarazene"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":420,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417\/revisions\/420"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}