{"id":422,"date":"2025-07-15T12:28:50","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T10:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/?p=422"},"modified":"2025-07-15T12:30:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T10:30:49","slug":"investicni-zpravodaj-za-2q-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/2025\/07\/15\/investicni-zpravodaj-za-2q-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Investi\u010dn\u00ed zpravodaj za 2Q 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00daV\u011aRY <\/strong>& BYDLEN\u00cd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hypote\u010dn\u00ed sazby m\u00edrn\u011b klesaj\u00ed<\/u> ji\u017e p\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v \u0159ad\u011b.<\/strong> \ud83c\udfd8\ufe0f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb 2025?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 sazba hypot\u00e9k klesla v \u010dervnu na 4,69 %. Oproti kv\u011btnu jde o drobn\u00fd posun o dva bazick\u00e9 body. Pokles pokra\u010duje ji\u017e p\u00e1t\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem v \u0159ad\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co pokles sazeb znamen\u00e1 v praxi?<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad u hypot\u00e9ky ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5 milion\u016f korun se splatnost\u00ed 30 let by m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed spl\u00e1tka p\u0159i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed sazb\u011b 4,69 % \u010dinila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 902 korun. Oproti kv\u011btnov\u00e9 hodnot\u011b jde o \u00fasporu o pouh\u00fdch 60 korun. K v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m by do\u0161lo a\u017e p\u0159i sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazby o cel\u00fd procentn\u00ed bod, co\u017e by m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed spl\u00e1tku sn\u00ed\u017eilo na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 22 986 korun.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co v\u0161echno m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit v\u00fd\u0161i \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mnoh\u00e9 banky poskytuj\u00ed klient\u016fm slevy, pokud spln\u00ed p\u0159edem stanoven\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, nap\u0159\u00edklad sjednaj\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nebo aktivn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed \u00fa\u010det v dan\u00e9 bance. N\u011bkter\u00e9 banky nav\u00edc zv\u00fdhod\u0148uj\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed nemovitost\u00ed s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed energetickou efektivitou. Pokud po\u0159izujete byt nebo d\u016fm s energetick\u00fdm \u0161t\u00edtkem A nebo B, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1m to zajistit ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farok. V\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sazbu z\u00edskaj\u00ed tak\u00e9 ti, kte\u0159\u00ed si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u011b do 80 % hodnoty zastavovan\u00e9 nemovitosti, tzv. LTV. Plat\u00ed tedy, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku si klient v\u016f\u010di hodnot\u011b nemovitosti p\u016fj\u010duje, t\u00edm p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podm\u00ednky m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat. Vhodn\u00e1 strategie p\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru v\u00fd\u0161e \u00fav\u011bru i jeho parametr\u016f m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt vliv na v\u00fd\u0161i m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed spl\u00e1tky i celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eSleva na sazb\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt na prvn\u00ed pohled nen\u00e1padn\u00e1, ale v sou\u010dtu \u00farok\u016f za celou dobu spl\u00e1cen\u00ed jde \u010dasto o v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPO\u0158EN\u00cd <\/strong>& INVESTOV\u00c1N\u00cd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

INVESTOV\u00c1N\u00cd:<\/u> <\/strong>\ud83d\udcb1 <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

AKCIOV\u00c9 trhy <\/strong>\ud83d\ude80 Korekce na trz\u00edch m\u00e1me za sebou.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed se neslo ve znamen\u00ed prudk\u00fdch pokles\u016f, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli cl\u016fm, kter\u00e1 m\u011bly USA uvalit t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho. Jak se situace vyv\u00edjela ve 2. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trhy byly nejv\u00edce ohro\u017eeny cly vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdmi proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, a to kv\u016fli extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00fdm obchodn\u00edm vazb\u00e1m se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a s cel\u00fdm rozvinut\u00fdm sv\u011btem. Vid\u011bli jsme n\u011bkolik kol vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed tarif\u016f ze strany USA a \u010c\u00edny, dokud nebylo rozhodnut\u00ed o clech odlo\u017eeno o 90 dn\u00ed. Nakonec budou cla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti a v tichosti zru\u0161ena.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokles akciov\u00fdch index\u016f od sv\u00e9ho vrcholu v roce 2025 dos\u00e1hl – 18 % v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b SP500, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b technologick\u00e9ho indexu NASDAQ to bylo – 22 %. Propad trval velmi kr\u00e1tkou dobu a do\u0161lo k dal\u0161\u00edmu extr\u00e9mn\u011b rychl\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed tvaru „V“ – („p\u00edsmeno V na grafu“ – prudk\u00fd propad, prudk\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed). Trhy na\u0161ly sv\u00e9 dno 7. dubna 2025 a pot\u00e9 se prudce odrazily sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru pot\u00e9, co bylo ozn\u00e1meno 90-ti denn\u00ed odklad cel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitika a investice<\/u><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt mezi Izraelem a Ir\u00e1nem by mohl (a m\u016f\u017ee) b\u00fdt velk\u00fdm rizikem, zejm\u00e9na pro energetick\u00fd sektor. Do t\u00e9to kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se zapojily i Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, co\u017e by tak\u00e9 mohlo znamenat eskalaci nad region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fsledk\u016f t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky mohlo b\u00fdt naru\u0161en\u00ed energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b nebo blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Obavy z energetick\u00e9 krize se v\u0161ak nenaplnily a konflikt skon\u010dil po 12 dnech p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm. Akciov\u00e9 trhy v souvislosti s t\u00edmto konfliktem nezaznamenaly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles. Existuje v\u0161ak d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nebude trvat dlouho a konflikt nakonec znovu vzplane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FED a \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby<\/u><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

V USA jsme ji\u017e dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1vali sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Na rozd\u00edl od Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky americk\u00fd Fed se sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm sazeb nesp\u011bch\u00e1. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti v USA je 4,5 %, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e v EU. St\u00e1le plat\u00ed, \u017ee vysok\u00e9 sazby dus\u00ed ekonomiku a komplikuj\u00ed podnik\u00e1n\u00ed, ale FED nechce sazby sni\u017eovat kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m z op\u011btovn\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu inflace. Proti sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb p\u016fsob\u00ed i nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost americk\u00e9 administrativy. Fed by v\u0161ak mohl za\u010d\u00edt sni\u017eovat sazby na konci roku 2025, co\u017e by mohlo b\u00fdt pro americk\u00e9 trhy siln\u00fdm r\u016fstov\u00fdm impulsem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflace v \u010cR za 05\/2025 = 2,4 % a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed 2T REPO sazba = 3,5 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trhy se zotavily, USD bohu\u017eel NE. <\/u><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Americk\u00fd akciov\u00fd index SP500 se ji\u017e zotavil na p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 02\/2025 a dokonce dos\u00e1hl nov\u00fdch historick\u00fdch maxim. USD v\u0161ak oslabil a jeho oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010duje. Pro\u010d dolar klesl? Investo\u0159i nemaj\u00ed r\u00e1di nejistotu. Nevyzpytatelnost americk\u00e9 administrativy, n\u00e1hl\u00e9 zm\u011bny v rozhodnut\u00edch a strategie typu „ka\u017ed\u00fd den oznamujeme sv\u011btu novou my\u0161lenku“ dolaru nepom\u00e1h\u00e1. Na druhou stranu slab\u00fd dolar pom\u00e1h\u00e1 americk\u00e9 ekonomice \u2013 proto\u017ee pro americk\u00e9 producenty znamen\u00e1 levn\u00fd v\u00fdvoz. B\u011bhem roku 2025 se kurz EUR\/USD pohyboval v rozmez\u00ed od 1,02 % do sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 1,18 %, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 opravdu v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed o zhruba 16 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak se da\u0159ilo na\u0161emu investi\u010dn\u00edmu portfoliu? <\/strong>\ud83d\udcca<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2025 je na\u0161e portfolio v poklesu \u2013 7 %, za 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f je to + 3,6 %, za posledn\u00ed 3 roky je to + 38 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Obr\u00e1zek 1.<\/u><\/em><\/strong> V\u00fdnos portfolia BASE (vklad 1000 EUR za 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f) v pom\u011bru 80:20 (akcie : dluhopisy); <\/em>zdroj: justETF.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co je AKTU\u00c1LN\u011a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bt? <\/strong>\ud83d\udcc8 \ud83d\udcc9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jak bude vypadat druh\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st roku 2025?<\/u><\/strong> Otazn\u00edky nad tarify nebyly dosud vy\u0159e\u0161eny. Mysl\u00edme si, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da bude i nad\u00e1le zp\u016fsobovat nestabilitu. Co je ale pro n\u00e1s d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9: poklesy jsou investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, tak\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo nakoupil b\u011bhem pokles\u016f, se nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u0161\u00ed p\u011bkn\u00e9mu zhodnocen\u00ed. Teoretick\u00e1 \u00favaha; pokud 7. dubna 2025 se n\u011bkomu poda\u0159ilo nakoupit index SP500 p\u0159esn\u011b na dn\u011b „sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed tarifu“; tento vklad by ji\u017e k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni zhodnotil o v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 % (v USD).<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem:<\/u><\/strong> <\/strong>\u270a\ud83c\udffb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trhy se zotavily, ale USD z\u016fstal slab\u00fd a my p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00edme mo\u017enost, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b nemusel naj\u00edt sv\u00e9 dno. To na jednu stranu znamen\u00e1 do\u010dasn\u00fd pokles hodnoty na\u0161eho portfolia, ale na druhou stranu to p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na\u0161e dal\u0161\u00ed levn\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy. A tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pravdou, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd nov\u00fd vklad v CZK do spo\u0159en\u00ed je \u201eN\u00c1KUP se SLEVOU\u201c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00daV\u011aRY & BYDLEN\u00cd Hypote\u010dn\u00ed sazby m\u00edrn\u011b klesaj\u00ed ji\u017e p\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v \u0159ad\u011b. \ud83c\udfd8\ufe0f V\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb 2025? Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 sazba hypot\u00e9k klesla v \u010dervnu na 4,69 %. Oproti kv\u011btnu jde o drobn\u00fd posun o dva bazick\u00e9 body. Pokles pokra\u010duje ji\u017e p\u00e1t\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem v \u0159ad\u011b. Co pokles sazeb znamen\u00e1 v praxi? Nap\u0159\u00edklad u hypot\u00e9ky ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5 milion\u016f korun se splatnost\u00ed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":425,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"2880","rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nezarazene"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/422"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=422"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/422\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":424,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/422\/revisions\/424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/daliborboncek.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}